First of all I'd like to apologize for not completing my previous post due to certain unforeseen circumstances. And now that its been a long time since, I wont complete it either. It wont make sense.
Moving on to today's post, I'd first like to say.....Its good to be back!
The other day I was having this conversation with a friend of mine who is a Pool fan. Well with these Pool fans my conversations generally spiral out of control, especially the football ones! This time it was a bit of a bringing her back to earth time.(Yes its a girl pool fan!! Can you believe that?)
With a good comfortable victory over Sunderland after the heartache of Middlesborough defeat, Liverpool are joint second on points in the table along with Chelsea. Her argument was that maybe there is still time for United to slip up and one of us to finally win the thing. I said its possible but not probable. Then I went on to put things into perspective. So I did some research and following are the findings.
Manu............P27....Pts65...GD36
Chelsea.........P28...Pts58...GD32
Liverpool......P28...Pts58...GD25
Therefore, United have 11 games to play whereas Chelsea and Liverpool have 10 each. The point difference is 7. The odds are stacked heavily against either of the chasing pack.
Now let us assume(make an ass of u and me). Here is how it goes for Chelsea and Liverpool. If either of them win all their remaining games(highly unlikely), they will be at 88 points. With United having 11 games to play, they will have to do either of the following.....
Lose 4 Win 7 (total 86) [extremely unlikely]
Lose 3 Draw 1 Win 7 (total 87) [highly unlikely]
Lose 2 Draw 2 Win 7 (total 88) [unlikely]
Lose 1 Draw 4 Win 6 (total 87) [highly unlikely]
for Chelsea or Liverpool to have any chance. The most promising is the third scenario. The unlikely one. In that scenario, goal difference comes into picture. So lets put that too into perspective....
United have lost 2 games all season both 2-1 losses so the avg goal difference when they lose is 1/game. While when they win the avg goal difference is 1.9/game. Hence in the above scenario, the goal difference tally will see a rise of 11.3 goals, lets say 11 for convenience. (Overall GD at the end of the season...47!)
Compare this to Chelsea's record. When they lose, they lose by an avg GD of 1.8/game. When they win, they win by an avg GD of 2.3/game. Since Chelsea have to win all 10 games, that makes it 23 GD in 10 games(Overall......55!!!) Chelsea will win the thing :)
Now for Liverpool's chances. When Pool lose, they do by an avg of 1.5 but when they win they do it by an average GD of 1.7/game. That takes their tally to 17 GD in next 10 games(Overall 42!) Liverpool will still be third :P
So there you have it. Chelsea are the only team in a position to challenge United for the title, and that position is on a tightrope tied between Mt Everest and Mt K2. Still enjoying the good times under Hiddink. Hope we do better in the UCL.
Have a nice day folks!
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6 comments:
Female Pool Fan ! I want to live in that world.
League is all ManU's. Pool win on weekend could just spice it up a bit.
I believe Utd will drop more points on the way to the title. I'm sure other teams as well, especially now that teams will have to focus on the champions league as well.
Liverpool deserved their victory against united but obviously chelsea is the team to watch out. i wont be surprised if pool drop points in their next game against villa.
5-0
Have to give it to Liverpool , they are really keeping the screws tight on United. The momentum is with them.
But what irks a fan , a United fan in particular is the way the media have been goading the ABU's to snatch it away from United. There are articles all over saying that United are cracking up and that they are not able to handle the pressure. Well , they seem to forget that Sir Alex has been handling this team for over two decades now .
What Liverpool have done over the last two weeks has been fantastic but United have had two fantastic decades.
Well the last couple of weeks have been interesting. But the international break would even things out a bit...and I suppose Pool will be back to being Pool again. I hope thats not the case with United though!
There's still a chance for us by the look of things, but if we play like we did in the first half against Spuds, we'd deserve to finish behind Pool and it would be gross!
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